REALISM ON IRAN – AT 8:40 A.M. ET:  There's been much optimistic talk recently that Iran's nuclear program may have been set back by American/Israeli sabotage and the effect of tougher sanctions.  There is a real danger we'll be lulled to sleep.  Now, an important American scientific organization is trying to jolt us back to reality.  From Fox:

ISTANBUL -- The U.S. is joining five other world powers for talks with Iran this week publicly confident that international efforts have slowed Tehran's capacity to make nuclear arms and created more time to press Tehran to accept curbs on its atomic activities.

But while diplomats and officials at the International Atomic Energy Agency -- the U.N. nuclear monitor -- agree that Iran's enrichment program has struggled over past years, the Federation of American Scientists warns against complacency.

It notes impressive improvements in the performance of the Iranian machines that enrich uranium -- an activity that has provoked U.N. sanctions because it could be used to make nuclear weapons.

Washington's message is essentially this: Iran is struggling with uranium enrichment, a process that can create both nuclear fuel and fissile warhead material. Significantly, that view is backed by Israel, Iran's implacable foe and considered to have the Mideast's best intelligence on Iran's nuclear strivings.

If true, that leaves more time to negotiate in hopes Iran will come around and give up enrichment -- thereby removing the threat of an Israeli or U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

But in a study shared ahead of publication with The Associated Press the Washington-based FAS argues that Iran last year appears to have increased efficiency of the machines that produce enriched uranium by 60 percent, giving it the technical capacity to produce enough material for a simple nuclear warhead in 5 months.

COMMENT:  Back to reality.  If true, this is a very alarming development, which makes the current diplomatic timetable instantly obsolete.  Combined with the crisis in Tunisia, instability in Egypt, and government collapse in Lebanon, it looks like an interesting year in the Mideast.  Guess all that outreach and warmth haven't produced much.

January 20, 2011